Wednesday 30 April 2014

Industry change - perhaps a new type of extortion/scam?

Hello

So, apparently the 0-14% "tax" will be a system wide effect.  I had assumed that if Joe in POS A is running his small POS red hot he would  have paid more tax than Bob in his POS one moon over barely doing anything, but nope, they will all pay the same "tax" (this 0-14% value is now called the base installation cost).

This has all sorts of implications and strange effects, and really has to be thought about.  I'm not quite sure that it makes sense - using the example as before, why does Joe's action in his POS affect Bob?  They aren't competing for limited resources in an NPC station or anything like that.   It's also troubling that the POS costs haven't been ironed out yet.  It makes this feel rush and poorly thought out.  And poorly thought out systems in EVE have a history of having interesting things happen to them.

So... besides a zealous manufacturer ruining it for everyone else, what could happen?

Well, suppose I start flying around looking for system with low-ish installation costs. I find one with a few POSes that look to be active.  I dock in station, and start manufacturing *tons* of crap.  I don't really care about a profit here, as long as I'm breaking even I'm fine.  The in system activity is driven up and after a while the installation costs start going up sharply. Then I contact all those POS owners and tell them "listen, I'm having a grand old time making a gazillion tech 1 50 mm plate here, but I figured that perhaps it's cramping your style.  If you wouldn't mind paying me a small fee to cover my moving away expenses, I'll be on my way".

... and then you move to the next system over and start again.

I don't plan on doing this, and I'm not sure if it's even possible... but I did want to claim being the first to think of it ;)   Seriously though, if there is *any way* to game this system, it is guaranteed that someone will.

This is EVE, after all.




Friday 25 April 2014

A quick commentary about the industrial changes, how it may impact the economy and the CSM

I've been reading a lot about the upcoming changes to industry.  Some of these changes are good for everyone (updated UI, RAM damage, extra materials), some are clearly benefiting null sec over highsec (superior refining) and some are still unknown (how will slot-less POS work?).  4 more dev blogs are coming up.

Some people are panicking (this is par for the course). The anxieties are because people fear high sec industry will no longer be viable.  I'm waiting for more details to form an opinion.  It is certainly true that high-sec industry used to have a big edge over Null, and this was a problem.  Did CCP over-correct?  Maybe.

Nosy Gamer has pointed out that the CSM members are, instead of putting out the flames, are fanning them with ill advised commentary.  For example, Jester (whom I normally really enjoy reading), claimed that it made more sense that Null sec was more profitable than High sec because it was like the low level vs high level areas of an MMO.   This argument is silly.  In those type of WoW-like MMOs, high level areas are more dangerous and more profitable because there are bigger monsters - dragons are more dangerous (and more lucrative to kill) than goblins.  Eve doesn't have monsters - well there are rats, but who cares, it's the PLAYERS who are the real foes.

Meanwhile mynnna made an economical argument that Nosy poked some serious holes in.  Mynnna argued that the cargo requirements to ship all the goods manufactured in Null back to highsec would be onerous.  Nosy pointed out that this capacity exists as the reverse trade is already occurring. This point is very thought provoking.

Generally speaking, high sec is where things are built (at the moment) and null where things are destroyed. Stuff is built in high sec, shipped (at fairly low cost) to Jita, where it it purchased and shipped (at higher costs) to null, where it is used and destroyed.

Now if you have a significant null industry, why would you ship stuff to Jita only to ship it back to null? It makes no sense. A central market hub will no longer be so crucial. What will happen is the rise of semi-stable Null trading hubs - nothing like Jita of course, but perhaps as big as say, Hek.

The difference between these  new null-sec trading hubs and the highsec hubs we know and love will be stability (due to war) and access. Right now anyone can go to Jita, or Rens or whatever. However, the PL trade hub won't be accessible by SOLAR members (and vice versa). The only reason Jita will persist - and it will be a shadow of its former self - is as a central "trade regulator" - if DCII are 400 K in the SOLAR hub and 800 K in the PL hub, there will be a movement of goods, and having a central market hub will still facilitate this type of trade since a SOLAR member can't just travel to PL space to sell his wares.   Jita may also be a central market place for compressed ore, which will be shipped to nullsec for refining.

These changes won't happen overnight.  It will take many months before these new hubs emerge (if they do).  We still don't have all the information. But changes are definitely coming.


Sunday 20 April 2014

High sec POS warfare - a short note

In my previous post, I mused about how the changes to POS standings may change the nature of POS warfare in highsec.  In brief, I believe that POS will become more desirable (both in looting content and utility), but that at the same time POS will be easier to move and there should be more free slots.

But there is a change I failed to mention, one that has happened already.

There are several ways to defend a POS.  Of course, the most desirable is a large fleet to crush your foe... but that's not always available.  However, a POS is not easy to destroy and its innate defences can be improved .  One is to have so many hardeners on that the POS has so much effective HP it's just not worth the time to blow up.  Another is the "death star"method, where your POS is bristling with firepower (something that works best with a gunner manning the guns, the gun AI isn't very clever).  The last one though is the "dickstar" method - have your POS field so much ECM that it's just impossible to establish a lock on it. (see here)

The "pure" dickstar method doesn't work anymore in highsec, as it has a new counter:  the Marauder.  In bastion mode, marauders are immune to ewar... so all that ECM will be gleefully ignored as the marauder fleet pound your POS to scrap metal.

However, marauders aren't necessarily the be all end all of pos-bashing ships, as they themselves have a counter.  When a marauder goes in bastion mode, it stops moving.  POS can field capital ship guns*. These guns are useless vs moving target, but can track an immobile marauder no problem... which tends to hurt if you have enough guns.

This doesn't mean that ECM can't be a part of your POS defence strategy. But you can no longer rely uniquely on it, as it can easily be countered.

*POS gun sizes are weird.  Unless this changed very recently, small POS guns are medium sized, medium guns are large sized, and large guns are capital sized... and capital sized guns won't be able to track subcaps at all, making them quite inefficient in high sec... but having a few at hands to shoot at marauders might be a good idea.  Remember you just have to anchor them, you don't have to turn all of them on at once.

Wednesday 16 April 2014

POS standing changes: meaning for war and industry

As some of you may know, CCP has announced a major revamp to industry.

Industry in EVE is a critical function.  I would go as far as to say that with no industry, there is no EVE.  It's a key step in the great "creation destruction" cycle.  And industry really needed attention.  So much so that it will need more than one expansion to get it done!  (note how invention and POS management won't be touched).

These changes have been announced and discussed  in more than one venue and I'm sure there are several more out there, since it's so fundamental. 

I would like to humbly focus on a single change: the standing requirements for POS, and its impact on both industry and war.

Currently, there are standing requirements to install a POS in high sec (and low sec too I think?).  The higher the sec status, the higher the standing requirement. In 0.8 and higher, POS could not be installed, period. 

Under the new regime, there will be no standing requirements.  You want to install a POS in 0.9 Amarr space and the Amarr space has never heard of you?  No problem!

I'm in favour of these changes.  There will be more room for POS than there are now - and POS are about to become more important for high sec industry.  It also provides more flexibility to industrial corps.  But these changes *will* have consequences, some of them perhaps unintended.

First of all, I predict there will be more POS in use.  This will lead to an increase in the price of towers, associated equipment, and POS fuel, leading to an increase in ice prices.  In the medium term, a number of these new POSes will be abandoned, creating opportunities for scavengers.

The cancelation of standing requirements should make industrial corps more willing to accept new members, as said members won't mess up the standings.  However, this may be cancelled by the changes in BPO handling, making them more vulnerable to insider thefts.  Time will tell.

I think though the biggest changes will be in corp mobility.  Many small corps have to jump through hoops to deal with standing issues to intall their POSes.  Once in place,  moving becomes a huge hassle.  The removal of the standing requirements will make it easier for a corp to move. 

This increased mobility will have a serious impact on high-sec war.  Small corps that are wardeced and do not wish to fight might simply pick everything up and leave.  Demand for POS-clearing services and standing grinding services will fall sharply, putting certain types of mercenaries - and certain types of scammers! - out of business.  On the other hand, stealing someone's moon will also be easier as replacing a destroyed POS with another will have one less hurdle to overcome.   Still, with the increased flexibility for corps and the vast supply of empty moonspots about to be released, POS warfare in highsec will certainly diminish. 

Lastly, one note of caution for industrialists.  While I think we can all be happy at the prospect of easier industry (I really am looking forward to the new UI and am intrigued by the "teams" concept), there is a caveat.  The current challenges with industry (especially T2 manufacture) keeps away many players.  Easier industry  means more industrialists, more supply and less profits.  Also, easier industry means less time spent clicking etc.  For some of us this will mean proportionally less time grinding and more time clicking.  For others, with more time will come more production.  Someone managing 2 accounts may now get a third to take advantage of this extra time to make more modules or drones or whatnots.  Again, increased supply will mean reduced prices and less profit.  Be careful what you wish for, you may just get it.




Tuesday 15 April 2014

The Battle of Aldrat

Each year, RvB declares war vs Eve University (a corporation that teaches new eve players.  I find them a bit too formal for my tastes, but they are really good for the game IMO, helping players overcome EVE's steep learning curve. Check out their wiki, it's a great resource!).  We declare war vs EveUni mainly for fun, but also to test ourselves vs a group with larger numbers.  Frequently we have the number advantage, but not in this case.  Also, it gives us a chance to form "Purple" - Reds and Blues uniting vs a common foe.

I also believe that this is a good educational for the Unistas - they get a lot of wardecs, but it's frequently by griefers.  RvB gives them a "real" opponent.   So RvB more or less shut down normal activities, we shipped a *massive* amount of ships to Aldrat (personally I sent 17 - I wanted options!) and got ready for war. 

And what a war it was!  It wasn't always "perfect".  On occasion, we didn't have a skilled FC present and vs the larger numbers of EveUni, we suffered a bit.  For instance I took out a t1 frigate fleet (I'm "ok-ish" at FCing).  Our scouts found their fleet, the numbers seemed roughly equal, we engaged... but they had scouts too and warped in reinforcements.  We lost that fight badly.  Oh well, t1 frigs!

In other occasions, we *really* didn't have the numbers.  At this time, we would form smaller roaming strike teams and look for targets of opportunity outside of Aldrat.  We have an FC who specializes in hunting war targets.  I won't name him so he can keep being effective... but he's very entertaining (and quite good too).  See, his wife is often sleeping when he's playing, so he leads with this hoarse whisper, giving the whole affair a unique cloak and dagger feel.  On that roam I decided to take out my Enyo to add punch.  It was my first time flying it in "real" PvP (vs structure bashing) and it was a very potent ship, if challenging to fly (soo little range!).  At one point I engaged a Thorax - look at the damage % I inflicted, the Enyo is a beast!  Other targets of note on that roam were a Talos, a Slicer, a Comet and a 0.5 bill pod.

And speaking of pods, another "fun" aspect of the war was the podding. RvB does not pod in regular Red vs Blue action.  However in this war it was allowed.  This forced me to get better at it... I had an overall success rate of 7/8 roughtly, but I did lose a semi-clean pod to the toon of 100 millions... ouch!

That is when things went "poorly". When they went well... it was glorious.  A doctrine we often used to counter the howling frigate hordes of eve Uni was the Longbow - a fleet built around the cormorant using t2 rails and spike ammo, resulting in a 100 km range!  This is a bit tricky to use - the FC needs to know what he's doing! - but when used well it's very potent, and very fun to be in.  At other time, to counter caracal fleets EveUni fielded, we used feroxes.  Rail feroxes used to be a bit of a joke, but no longer!

All this leads to Thursday, the last evening of the war.  Our spiritual leader, Mangala Solaris, called out for a large armor fleet to blow up an EveUni Poco to make a point.  When we called for the undock, it was an impressive sight.  Well over 20 Domis undocked at once, accompanied by heavy logi support, several other battleships, dozens of battlecruisers etc... about 100 in total.  We headed to the POCO and waited a few minutes for the timer to end, deploying sentries etc.  Mangala asked if we wanted to win, or if we wanted to destroy the POCO - we said it was his call.  This question wasn't rhetorical.  EveUni had a counter for our fleet.  First they dropped a number of suicide destroyers on us at short range.  While we were dealing with that, they put an attack battlecruiser fleet (mostly tornados) fleet in position... and hit us with a second, bigger waive of suicide destroyers.  This tactic, mixed with a bit of EWAR and their superior numbers, resulted in heavy loses on our side.   My dominix *melted*.  But... we did kill the POCO :)

We had a cruiser battle or two following this, then Yngvarr took over Mang for FCing.  Who is this fellow you ask?  Well, after this war I must say he is a Titan among men.  On some days he FCed 6 hours straight!  He also happens to be one of the top pilots on Battlleclinic.  So for this fight, he called for a shield cruisers with rail doctrine, loading caldari lead, all DPS no support.  I hopped in a Thorax.  Eve Uni chose talwars. At this point, both EveUni and RvB had a number of ships left, and not much time remaining on the war.  Everyone decided to go all out.

And Thus Began the Killing

The two fleets danced around each other, exchanging furious fire.  At once point we were killing a talwar ever 5 seconds.  Both sides kept reshipping, sometimes conceding the field for a moment to regroup but always returning to the fight.  I lost 3 thoraxes but kept coming back (at the end I was in a longbow ship and it worked well).  The battle raged for over 2 hours, you can see it here.  If you don't feel like watching 2 hours, the tl,dr is Yngvarr telling us to kiiiilll aaaalll the taaaalwaaars!  I unfortunately missed the end, but I hear there was a massive FFA at one point :)

Last year we stomped Eve Uni.  This year they fought like lions.  The final tally is telling:  isk ratio near 50%,  almost 120 billions destroyed, RvB losing 2400 ships but killing over 4500.  Who won?  All of us I think.  Furious battles, great fleets and fun for everyone.   There was an article about this war on TMC and unfortunately there were a snide comment or two, but they are wrong.  On Thursday, the real action in Eve was not in Nullsec, it was in Aldrat. 

Sunday 13 April 2014

CSM elections - my voting recommendations

So.

I'm a high sec PvPer and (alts) trader/industrialist.  Whom am I voting for this year?


1:  Mangala Solaris.   Yes, yes of course I'm voting for Mang, being in RvB and all that.  I still think he makes a very good choice for CSM 9.  He has experience.  He's a great communicator.  He creates a lot of content for EVE via RvB *and* the RvB Ganked roam (a public roam open to just about everyone).  Mang uses his access to the RvB community to consult about various things - and since RvB members have alts doing just about everything, it's a good sounding board.

2:  Sugar Kyle:  Sugar has mounted a very good campaign this year.  She shows strong signs of being able to deal with CCP well (mixture of agreeableness and good communications).   More importantly though, she's a very ardent advocate for lowsec.  Lowsec is an area of space I don't go to very often, but it's one that can be a lot of fun.  It's very unique - almost outside of empire control but also outside of *player* empire control too.  Yet it seems neglected by CCP.  Lowsec *needs* a CSM representative.   She's also a trader and an industrialist, making her a good choice for anyone interested in those businesses. 

3:  Mike Azariah:   Mike is another experienced CSM member and skilled communicator.  His focus is speaking up for the casual EVE player and the PVE player - the type of players that are often ignored.  These areas of the game clearly need some focus by CCP, and is perhaps the best high-sec representative we have.  We are all in this together... I think people who do nothing but mine or mission are a bit peculiar, but they help keep CCP afloat!

4:  Corbexx:  A short while ago RvB had a run in with NoHo, a strong wormhole alliance.  This could have ended pretty poorly for us but they were great sports and left a tremendous impression.  Of course, when I learned that their leader was running for CSM, I had to investigate.  Corbexx seems to be a strong communicator and very knowledgeable about the game.  CSM clearly needs at least one wormhole space representative.  POS are very important for wormhole life (and for industrialists too) so this is an area I can expect him to be vocal about.  He also does industry on the side, so another reason to vote for him.

5:  Mynnna:  I'll be honest.  I'm a bit... wary of the goons.  They have a tremendous influence over the game and their leadership is fiendishly clever.  But if any CFC candidate deserves to be in the CSM it is Mynnna.  He has a great understanding of the game economy and this expertise is needed.  He also was very active in CSM8. Besides, I almost killed him with a joke (choked on a sandwich) so I kind of owe him.

6:  Ali Aras:  A returning CSM member, she seems to have been tremendously effective.  I'm less familiar with her platform than I should be, but the near unanimous praise she has received as a CSM member indicates to me she deserves a second run.  I'll also note that she is in Noir, a well respected mercenary groups (ie, NOT a bunch of Jita campers) and that definitely is a perspective that deserves representation no?

7: Steve Ronuken:  A high-sec industrialist and developer of 3rd party tools and software.  His campaign focuses on these goals (less clicking!).  He's also very aware that some of the software implementations such as CREST could be abused to power bots, so having his input will be very helpful to CCP I believe.

8:  Matias Otero:   Matias created BNI, ie Brave Newbies, out of nothing.  This small group has grown, and grown, and grown and now has over 14 000 pilots.  Their focus is not isk/h, it is fun/h.  I like this focus, and I like the qualities it takes to make such a feat a reality.

9: corebloodbrothers:  He is the block candidate for Providence.  Providenc is player owned Nullsec, but it's different.  This is where people can go to "try" nullsec.  A lot of industry goes on there, and a lot of small groups.  It's a different perspective, and I think it deserves to be on the CSM.  It also bears to mention he's an experienced FC.

The main thing though... go and VOTE!  You have until April 22nd. Not voting will favour large nullsec blocks since they are organized and will get the vote out.  They have enough influence as it is no?


Saturday 12 April 2014

Schrödinger's Rifter

I was reading a post from Jester about what happened during a battle (see here).  His opponents showed up and disputed what happened.  Clearly, someone is lying... or are they?

As a (very junior) member of RvB command, I often hear disputes about what occurred during a battle.  This is because some RvB fights (not all!) are arranged and supposed to be somewhat fair (why? because fights that are close can be very thrilling).  So when such an aranged fight occurs, sometimes after the fight there will be some arguing about what happened - someone upshiped, they had more numbers, logi etc etc.  Often the stories from each side don't reconcile, IE it sounds like someone is lying.

Initially I thought this was due to sore losers - or bad winners.  I mean, there is only one reality right?  There either was a logi ship, or there wasn't.  The fleet had 10 members or 20, not both.  It's not Schrödinger's Rifter after all!   In Jester's case, one could conclude it's either ego or propaganda spin - both sides want to appear virtuous and dangerous Eve warriors. 

After a while, after hearing so many stories (and being in so many fights), I realized that it isn't people intentionally lying. In an Eve fight, a lot of stuff is going on. There is too much information for your brain to fully process and other facts are hidden. So your mind makes up a story about what is happening (filling in the blanks, making assumptions, shortcuts) to help you cope, and you react to this story.  It often is better to react with partial information than do nothing at all.  In a crisis situation, inaction can be fatal.  Of course, it also leads to mistakes, but such is war.

So two sides having a different story for the same fight? Par for the course!  Of course in some cases one side might be lying... but it's not the only explanation.  Remember Hanlon's razor!

Edit:  themittani.com just published an article that's quite relevant to this, about bias:  Biases in reading and writing

Sunday 6 April 2014

Comet Mining: incursion for miners

Mining in Eve is kinda dull, and it's received very little attention from the developers.  This is is a suggestion to offer an "incursion" like alternative to miners.

I had this idea while looking at ice 0.2 AU from the sun and commenting that there should be a huge vapour trail.  I wondered - why aren't there comets in Eve?   And if there were, what we could do with them?

Concept: 
Comets are pretty rare, but in a world with thousands of star system, there should be a comet in the galaxy every few days.  Comets come from the outer reach of a solar system, and have complex compositions, made of the primordial materials that made the system.  Stuff that has since long been minded out in a system could appear in a comet.  Comet are hard to detect, until they come close to a star and start emitting a large vapour trail, then becoming visible to everyone in the system.   They sometimes do not survive their passage near the sun though, either gassing out completely, hitting the sun or... being completely mined out.

Gaming content:
- Comets are large and contain various valuable materials.  I'm not sure exactly *what* should be in there but it doesn't have to be a new resource.  I think a good idea would be a mixture of common and rare ores and ices, gases, and possibly some types of moon goo and PI resources.  A single comet should be worth a lot of money, and would be worth chasing by miners.  Being there first would give access to the choice materials, but choices would have to be made - the different kind of resources would require different mining modules.  Variability between comets would also be nice, rewarding adaptability in comet chasers.

- Comets are rare on a system basis, but common on a galactic basis.  They appear in a system, are very obvious when there, then disappears after a while.  The basic concept is similar to incursions - a periodic event that happens in different places, bringing players together to deal with it.  There will need to be some kind of in game mechanic so that miners who aren't in that system can find out where active comets have been spotted.

- Comets *move* .  I'm not sure if this is a good idea, but maybe it could be neat if Comets had velocities.  This would change mining gameplay significantly.  I'm not sure how fast they should be moving,  but depending on the velocity certain ships may not be able to keep up.  This would make the skiff and venture more valuable, and certain methods of cargo handling not as great (parking a freighter or orca in the belt type of deal, this wouldn't work).  I'll note that this is probably the most optional part of my proposal.

- PvP content.  The high value of this will attract lots of miners, which will then attract lots of gankers.  I think this situation will make miners fielding a few defensive ship make much more sense than it usually does now, increasing chance for PvP.  T1 haulers going back and forth to the comet to help with the materials, cans dropped behind would also become targets for pirates and thieves.  Of course, the presence or absence of Concord will have a big impact, but gankers have ways of dealing with concord pressures.

- Rats:  Comets may attract attention from bigger or different types of rats than what usually shows up in belts, providing further content and challenges to would-be comet miners.

Reason why CCP should do this:
- new PvE high-end content for miners that has the potential to bring more of them together, encouraging more social play
- shouldn't be too hard for CCP to do
- probable conflict source
- Could have some really cool looking art that would help sell the game.  The comet would be visible from the whole system.

Possible challenges:
- There are economic considerations. What materials should be in the comet, in what quantity and how variable comets are deserves careful thought.  The comet has to be valuable enough for it to be worth going after, and frequent enough that a "comet chaser" community evolves, but not SO valuable to throw everything out of whack.  Miners chasing comets aren't doing their normal mining operations, and that may impact the economy as well.  As mentioned earlier, passing the word around that system X will be crucial - unlike an incursion that affects an entire constellation, this only affects a single system.

- There may be technical challenges too.  For example, one giant rock having multiple ores and ice may not be possible with EVE's code (but this can be bypassed by having the comment be a closely packed assembly of rocks).   The comet with a velocity may also be difficult to achieve. New mining modules may have to be created, although that should be pretty easy to accomplish. 

- There may be "political" resistance from null-sec players.  They may not like the idea of their precious null-only materials appearing anywhere willy nilly, and they tend to be a lot more vocal than miners.

Lastly, I'll note that this type of comet isn't the short period, highly predictable comet.  A comet of this type has been mined out a long time ago.   However, we also have comets that we've never seen before show up every few years.  These are either comets that have orbital periods in the hundred, thousands of years, even more, OR comets that have been  knocked out of alignment in the Oort cloud and are now hurling towards the sun.  These comets are new, fresh, filled with valuables and unpredictable to boot.  Now, in our solar system we only get these comets every few year (say, once every 4 year just to make up a number).  But with 7500 star systems in EVE, that means 5 of these comets would show up *per day* somewhere in the galaxy!